Let us consider some of the things that make us happy. And when I say "us", I mean "me".
The only professional football team I cheer for is the New Orleans Saints. There are other teams I enjoy watching, the Colts currently topping the list. But the Saints, as I wrote briefly here, are like the pro football version of my unconscious (whatever that means). Much of the time I don't really pay attention to what's really going on, though it has a big effect on how I view the rest of the world. The Saints are my default setting. The Saints have never been very good. It took 35 years to win one playoff game (by comparison, both the Jaguars and Panthers made the conference championship game in their 2nd year). Cheering for them leads to a sort of resigned hopelessness. Good things never happen to us. Why bother getting too excited?
Last year the Saints went to Green Bay when the Packers were 0-3 and got hammered 52-3. Every time they have a chance to show the world what they're made of, they do. And it turns out to be some soft, gooey, gelatin-like substance that can't block or tackle. Which brings us to Monday Night Football.
Let's put aside the emotional aspect for a second. I thought the Saints had zero chance of winning. Atlanta had run the ball amazingly well, and stopping it hasn't really been the Saints' strength. Atlanta's defense would also be the best the Saints had faced so far. Somebody at work said that he would be pulling for the Saints, and he thought that a lot of others would be, too. I understood the position. Struggling city, underdog team, feel-good story. My response: Don't bother. Really. Please. It's very nice, but you'll only end up being disappointed, and you'll wonder why you ever bothered. Now for the emotions.
Before the game, I kept trying to imagine what it was like inside the Superdome. Pregame concert, intros, kickoff, all that. I couldn't imagine what the noise level was going to be like. When the Saints blocked a punt and scored a TD on the first possession of the game, I almost started crying. If I had been there, I probably would have. I spent the rest of the game in front of the TV waiting for the other shoe to drop. Surely this couldn't continue. Surely we couldn't keep playing this well. Something had to go wrong. Somebody kept a tight grip on that shoe, because the Saints played pretty well all game long. Good enough to win 23-3 and go 3-0 to start the season.
I think someone kidnapped all the Saints players and replaced them with guys who play good defense and execute well on offense.
Does this make me happy? Yes. Due to past experience, it's a tenuous sort of happiness, but you have to enjoy it while you can.
What else was I going to talk about? Oh yes, Couples and TV Shows. At the end of last season, Lorelai gave Luke an ultimatum on their marriage, and Luke balked at it. Last night's season premiere only widened the rift. This does NOT make me happy. I like them together. I watch when they're together. When I see old episodes of Lorelai dating someone else, it ticks me off. They should get her and Luke married as soon as possible so they can be happy. More importantly, so I can be happy.
I know why the writers do things like this. They love to drag things out. Increase the drama. See how long they can go until they can't stall any longer. Personally, I see it as laziness and lack of creativity. It's like they think they won't be able to find new storylines if the main characters are happy. Plus, they made Logan look good last night, and that really pisses me off. I hope he gets hit by a bus.
Contrast this with Bones. I want Booth and Brennan together. Now. Tonight's episode presented a perfect opportunity to drive them apart and put off them getting together. For a while I thought that's exactly what would happen. But the writers found a quick and easy way to resolve the conflict, and now they're closer than they were before. Of course, they ended it with something else that could be a problem, but we'll worry about that next week. My guess? I think Bones has a shorter shelf life on TV than Gilmore Girls, and the writers know it, so they want to get Bones and Booth together in a relatively short period of time. Whatever the reason, I love their chemistry and am happy with the current pace of their relationship. It makes me happy.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Monday, September 18, 2006
16 wasn't quite good enough
I thought I'd take this opportunity to review what I got right and wrong about this past weekend in college football's matchups of top 25 teams.
I didn't see a whole lot of the Michigan/Notre Dame game, but every time I turned it on, Michigan had scored again. I thought they could win if they pounded away with Mike Hart and kept their defense off the field. I didn't imagine that their defense would have so much success beating up the ND offense and coming up with big plays. All they did was go out and hammer Notre Dame by 26 on the road, with pretty much everybody playing great all over the place. Hail to the victors.
The Nebraska/USC game went pretty much like I thought. USC just has too many good players at every position for Nebraska to match up against. Their defense jumped all over the short passing game and the offense picked on the Husker secondary. It was really a more dominating performance than the 28-10 score would indicate.
Florida beat Tennessee 21-20 on the road, using a pretty balanced attack on offense and what may be the best Gator defense in ten years. Florida's good. Stupid Florida.
I thought Miami's defense would be too good for Louisville. I was dead wrong. Miami looked like garbage from one end to the other. Louisville stomped them 31-7.
I had Oregon with the edge over Oklahoma, but the Sooner did quite a bit better than I thought they would. I wasn't sure they could put up 24 on Oregon, and they went for 33. One too few, as it turns out. Oregon was the beneficiary of a "controversial" call that gave them the ball on an onside kick, when it looked like replay showed that an Oregon player touched it before it went ten yards. Even after review, they got the call wrong. I put the c-word in quotes because this is a word that writers use when they don't want to harp on how officiating blatantly cost one team the game. They think it diminishes the majesty of the sport and calls into question the legitimacy of the results. I don't like the constant griping from fans that the refs are out to get "our team" either. But let's not sugarcoat it by using a word like "controversial". The word is "wrong" or "bad". It was a BAD CALL.
I didn't see a single play of Texas Tech/TCU, but the Horned Frog defense must be pretty good to hold TT to three points. Good for them.
Remember when I said to never trust Clemson? Unranked and coming off a loss to BC, they turn around and beat Florida state in Tallahassee. Can't trust 'em at all.
The game of the day, of course, was LSU/Auburn. Both defenses are very good. I think LSU's is better, but Auburn was able to make LSU one-dimensional by totally shutting down the run. Auburn's offense put together one good drive in the third quarter, and that was enough. LSU's defense got lit up last year by Kenny Irons. This time he had 70. Brandon Cox had 110 yards passing. LSU was able to extend the no-TD streak to 16 quarters, which is terrific. I won't say that LSU will win the rest of their games, but as long as they carry this defense with them, they can beat anybody, anywhere. It's really amazing. Overall, the game consisted of two teams knocking the crap out of each other. At one point or another, every guy who stepped on the field got rocked.
I disagree with Ivan Maisel's statement that it was the kind of game that "set football back 40 years", even though he was trying to pay a compliment. The implication is that the game was sloppy, which it wasn't. There was only one turnover, and only 85 yards of penalties. The game was a well-played one in spite of the low score. I have a hard time imagining that this game was more damaging to college football than one where the defensive line gets blown off the ball, the linebackers don't fill or tackle, and the secondary lets receivers run unencumbered.
Through three games, LSU's defense has allowed 13 points. The next two opponents are Tulane and Mississippi State. There's a real chance that after five games, LSU could be allowing 2.6 points a game. Yowza.
I didn't see a whole lot of the Michigan/Notre Dame game, but every time I turned it on, Michigan had scored again. I thought they could win if they pounded away with Mike Hart and kept their defense off the field. I didn't imagine that their defense would have so much success beating up the ND offense and coming up with big plays. All they did was go out and hammer Notre Dame by 26 on the road, with pretty much everybody playing great all over the place. Hail to the victors.
The Nebraska/USC game went pretty much like I thought. USC just has too many good players at every position for Nebraska to match up against. Their defense jumped all over the short passing game and the offense picked on the Husker secondary. It was really a more dominating performance than the 28-10 score would indicate.
Florida beat Tennessee 21-20 on the road, using a pretty balanced attack on offense and what may be the best Gator defense in ten years. Florida's good. Stupid Florida.
I thought Miami's defense would be too good for Louisville. I was dead wrong. Miami looked like garbage from one end to the other. Louisville stomped them 31-7.
I had Oregon with the edge over Oklahoma, but the Sooner did quite a bit better than I thought they would. I wasn't sure they could put up 24 on Oregon, and they went for 33. One too few, as it turns out. Oregon was the beneficiary of a "controversial" call that gave them the ball on an onside kick, when it looked like replay showed that an Oregon player touched it before it went ten yards. Even after review, they got the call wrong. I put the c-word in quotes because this is a word that writers use when they don't want to harp on how officiating blatantly cost one team the game. They think it diminishes the majesty of the sport and calls into question the legitimacy of the results. I don't like the constant griping from fans that the refs are out to get "our team" either. But let's not sugarcoat it by using a word like "controversial". The word is "wrong" or "bad". It was a BAD CALL.
I didn't see a single play of Texas Tech/TCU, but the Horned Frog defense must be pretty good to hold TT to three points. Good for them.
Remember when I said to never trust Clemson? Unranked and coming off a loss to BC, they turn around and beat Florida state in Tallahassee. Can't trust 'em at all.
The game of the day, of course, was LSU/Auburn. Both defenses are very good. I think LSU's is better, but Auburn was able to make LSU one-dimensional by totally shutting down the run. Auburn's offense put together one good drive in the third quarter, and that was enough. LSU's defense got lit up last year by Kenny Irons. This time he had 70. Brandon Cox had 110 yards passing. LSU was able to extend the no-TD streak to 16 quarters, which is terrific. I won't say that LSU will win the rest of their games, but as long as they carry this defense with them, they can beat anybody, anywhere. It's really amazing. Overall, the game consisted of two teams knocking the crap out of each other. At one point or another, every guy who stepped on the field got rocked.
I disagree with Ivan Maisel's statement that it was the kind of game that "set football back 40 years", even though he was trying to pay a compliment. The implication is that the game was sloppy, which it wasn't. There was only one turnover, and only 85 yards of penalties. The game was a well-played one in spite of the low score. I have a hard time imagining that this game was more damaging to college football than one where the defensive line gets blown off the ball, the linebackers don't fill or tackle, and the secondary lets receivers run unencumbered.
Through three games, LSU's defense has allowed 13 points. The next two opponents are Tulane and Mississippi State. There's a real chance that after five games, LSU could be allowing 2.6 points a game. Yowza.
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Here's hoping for 18
This weekend brings us one of the great college football weekends of the last few years, and certainly the biggest of this season. SEVEN games match teams ranked in the top 24 in the country. Had Clemson not lost to BC in double overtime last week, the number would be eight. Lesson: Never trust Clemson.
On the slate:
11Michigan AT 2Notre Dame
19Nebraska AT 4USC
7Florida AT 13Tennessee
17Miami AT 12Louisville
15Oklahoma AT 18Oregon
24Texas Tech AT 20TCU
6 LSU AT 3Auburn
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Michigan hasn't been much of a factor nationally the last few years, so they're flying under the radar for a team on the verge of the top ten. They have a very good RB in Mike Hart, but I can't escape the idea that QB Chad Henne and the receivers are underachieving a little. Notre Dame has a great offense being run by Brady Quinn and Charlie Weis, and they can put at least four legitimate weapons at Quinn's disposal on the field at the same time. I thought Penn State had some good success running right at Notre Dame and abandoned it a little too early, and running up the gut is Michigan's strength. If Michigan can pound away and keep their defense off the field, they've got a great shot.
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As you might remember, I'm a fan of Nebraska. Tommie Frazier is my favorite college player of all time, Tom Osborne my favorite, coach, and I believe that 1995 Nebraska is the best college team ever. So I would love to see them win at USC, but I just don't think it's going to happen. Nebraska's front seven on defense are outstanding, but the secondary isn't ready for all the different guys who can catch passes for USC. The only hope is for the line to get so much pressure on John David Booty that he never has any time to find them, and USC's offensive line is too good for that to happen. On the other side, Pete Carroll does a good job of bringing pressure from different angles, and I don't think Nebraska's offensive line is good enough to stand up to it. Nebraska can hang with them for a while, but home field and clear edge in depth and talent will win out for USC. I'll be pulling for Nebraska.
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Florida and Tennessee match up in the biggest game in the SEC East, probably all year. The winner's game against UGA might come close if UGA is unbeaten. The Effing Gators have looked really good in two blowout wins, and the second year of Urban Meyer's system is going a lot better than the first. They're finding ways to work freshmen Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin into the game, with good results. Especially Harvin.
Quick interruption to talk about women's soccer. Wambach has scored twice in her hometown of Rochester, NY. Natasha Kai and her tattoos just entered the game.
Tennessee is a mystery to a lot of people. After a 5-6 season last year, we didn't know if they would underachieve again or regain top form and challenge for the SEC title. They beat the stuffing out of Cal in Week 1, but maybe Cal was ranked too high (I don't like the term "overrated"). Then they almost lost to Air Force. I hope they beat the hell out of Florida. And that Florida gets hit by a bus.
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Who in their right mind would ever think that Louisville would be ranked five spots higher than Miami when they played? Yowza. Louisville lost a marvelous running back when Michael Bush broke his leg in Week 1. Big, strong, fast, he would be a load to handle in any system, but especially with a guy like Bobby Petrino. They missed him a lot when they beat Temple 62-0 last week. So why to I think Miami will win? DefenseDefenseDefenseDefenseDefense. They'll dare Louisville to run it with Bush out, and his replacements will find Miami a lot meaner than Temple. The secondary is one of the best around and will make life tough on Brian Brohm and the receivers. And they're going to be pissed that UL is ranked higher than they are.
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Oklahoma beat Oregon in last year's Holiday Bowl, the first time in quite a while it wasn't an offensive shootout, but a tough 17-14 Sooner victory. Oklahoma will have the best player on the field, Adrian Peterson, but I'm not sure they have enough of everything else. The defense has been given fits by UAB and Washington, not exactly USC and Notre Dame. The offense has to go with QB-then-WR-then-QB-again Paul Thompson, who lost to TCU at home last year. Yikes. Oregon is balanced on offense, has a very good RB Jonathan Stewart (averaging more than 7 yards a pop so far), was good enough to beat Fresno State on the road, and have a very strong homefield advantage at Autzen Stadium. West Coast fans hail it as the toughest place in the country. SEC fans scoff at a place with fewer than 42,000 seats (that's a spring practice crowd at Florida), but the noise is supposed to be incredible.
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The bottom-feeder of the group, TT/ could end up being a pretty entertaining game. I looked through the TCU roster and didn't recognize a single name, which means absolutely nothing. As I mentioned above, they were good enough to win at Oklahoma last year, and some of that respect has carried over to this year. Nobody pays attention to the Texas Tech roster either, because they think all the numbers are simply products of Mike Leach's system. One roster fact of note: for the first time in a million years, Texas Tech isn't starting a senior at QB. So what Graham Harrell might do in two years could be ridiculous. I don't care who wins.
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And of course, the best matchup of the weekend, LSU traveling to the Plains to take on Auburn. LSU won last year 20-17 in overtime, helped greatly by five missed field goals by the Auburn kicker (he went down like a choking dog). Kenny Irons hit the LSU defense up for over 200 yards. Now he and Brandon Cox have another year under their belt, and Courtney Taylor is one of the best receivers in the SEC. Winning at Auburn ain't easy. So why do I feel so good? Good question. One LSU fan commented that this was the most confident he'd seen LSU before such a big game in quite a while, and I think he's right. What's the deal?
The biggest deal to me is how much better JaMarcus Russell looks at quarterback. Yes, ULL and Arizona aren't near the level of Auburn, and yes he's had all day to find receivers. But he just looks so much better and in control of everything.
The second biggest is how quickly the defense appears to have come together after losing All-American caliber DTs Kyle Williams and Claude Wroten, a good and experienced two-way DE Melvin Oliver, and two experienced starting linebackers. A second year under Bo Pelini helps a lot. All they've done this year is outscore opponents 12-6 on their own in two 45-3 wins. No TDs allowed in the last 14 quarters. I'd love to see it reach 18.
Third biggest is Dwayne Bowe, who had Lasik surgery before the Peach Bowl and has looked great since. He has the chance to be a total beast this year.
Big questions for LSU are the running backs and offensive line. The backs are either dinged up or freshmen except for Jacob Hester, who isn't exactly the prototype SEC feature back. He is a good receiver out of the backfield, and has his moments as a runner. If Auburn stuffs the run and pressures Russell, it's going to be a long game for LSU. If they can't stop Kenny Irons with a rebuilt front seven, it'll be even longer.
I have no idea how the game will go, but the last three games for LSU (Peach Bowl plus first two games this season) have been outstanding. Like 130-9 outstanding. I do feel pretty good about that.
USA 3, MEXICO 1.
On the slate:
11Michigan AT 2Notre Dame
19Nebraska AT 4USC
7Florida AT 13Tennessee
17Miami AT 12Louisville
15Oklahoma AT 18Oregon
24Texas Tech AT 20TCU
6 LSU AT 3Auburn
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Michigan hasn't been much of a factor nationally the last few years, so they're flying under the radar for a team on the verge of the top ten. They have a very good RB in Mike Hart, but I can't escape the idea that QB Chad Henne and the receivers are underachieving a little. Notre Dame has a great offense being run by Brady Quinn and Charlie Weis, and they can put at least four legitimate weapons at Quinn's disposal on the field at the same time. I thought Penn State had some good success running right at Notre Dame and abandoned it a little too early, and running up the gut is Michigan's strength. If Michigan can pound away and keep their defense off the field, they've got a great shot.
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As you might remember, I'm a fan of Nebraska. Tommie Frazier is my favorite college player of all time, Tom Osborne my favorite, coach, and I believe that 1995 Nebraska is the best college team ever. So I would love to see them win at USC, but I just don't think it's going to happen. Nebraska's front seven on defense are outstanding, but the secondary isn't ready for all the different guys who can catch passes for USC. The only hope is for the line to get so much pressure on John David Booty that he never has any time to find them, and USC's offensive line is too good for that to happen. On the other side, Pete Carroll does a good job of bringing pressure from different angles, and I don't think Nebraska's offensive line is good enough to stand up to it. Nebraska can hang with them for a while, but home field and clear edge in depth and talent will win out for USC. I'll be pulling for Nebraska.
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Florida and Tennessee match up in the biggest game in the SEC East, probably all year. The winner's game against UGA might come close if UGA is unbeaten. The Effing Gators have looked really good in two blowout wins, and the second year of Urban Meyer's system is going a lot better than the first. They're finding ways to work freshmen Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin into the game, with good results. Especially Harvin.
Quick interruption to talk about women's soccer. Wambach has scored twice in her hometown of Rochester, NY. Natasha Kai and her tattoos just entered the game.
Tennessee is a mystery to a lot of people. After a 5-6 season last year, we didn't know if they would underachieve again or regain top form and challenge for the SEC title. They beat the stuffing out of Cal in Week 1, but maybe Cal was ranked too high (I don't like the term "overrated"). Then they almost lost to Air Force. I hope they beat the hell out of Florida. And that Florida gets hit by a bus.
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Who in their right mind would ever think that Louisville would be ranked five spots higher than Miami when they played? Yowza. Louisville lost a marvelous running back when Michael Bush broke his leg in Week 1. Big, strong, fast, he would be a load to handle in any system, but especially with a guy like Bobby Petrino. They missed him a lot when they beat Temple 62-0 last week. So why to I think Miami will win? DefenseDefenseDefenseDefenseDefense. They'll dare Louisville to run it with Bush out, and his replacements will find Miami a lot meaner than Temple. The secondary is one of the best around and will make life tough on Brian Brohm and the receivers. And they're going to be pissed that UL is ranked higher than they are.
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Oklahoma beat Oregon in last year's Holiday Bowl, the first time in quite a while it wasn't an offensive shootout, but a tough 17-14 Sooner victory. Oklahoma will have the best player on the field, Adrian Peterson, but I'm not sure they have enough of everything else. The defense has been given fits by UAB and Washington, not exactly USC and Notre Dame. The offense has to go with QB-then-WR-then-QB-again Paul Thompson, who lost to TCU at home last year. Yikes. Oregon is balanced on offense, has a very good RB Jonathan Stewart (averaging more than 7 yards a pop so far), was good enough to beat Fresno State on the road, and have a very strong homefield advantage at Autzen Stadium. West Coast fans hail it as the toughest place in the country. SEC fans scoff at a place with fewer than 42,000 seats (that's a spring practice crowd at Florida), but the noise is supposed to be incredible.
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The bottom-feeder of the group, TT/ could end up being a pretty entertaining game. I looked through the TCU roster and didn't recognize a single name, which means absolutely nothing. As I mentioned above, they were good enough to win at Oklahoma last year, and some of that respect has carried over to this year. Nobody pays attention to the Texas Tech roster either, because they think all the numbers are simply products of Mike Leach's system. One roster fact of note: for the first time in a million years, Texas Tech isn't starting a senior at QB. So what Graham Harrell might do in two years could be ridiculous. I don't care who wins.
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And of course, the best matchup of the weekend, LSU traveling to the Plains to take on Auburn. LSU won last year 20-17 in overtime, helped greatly by five missed field goals by the Auburn kicker (he went down like a choking dog). Kenny Irons hit the LSU defense up for over 200 yards. Now he and Brandon Cox have another year under their belt, and Courtney Taylor is one of the best receivers in the SEC. Winning at Auburn ain't easy. So why do I feel so good? Good question. One LSU fan commented that this was the most confident he'd seen LSU before such a big game in quite a while, and I think he's right. What's the deal?
The biggest deal to me is how much better JaMarcus Russell looks at quarterback. Yes, ULL and Arizona aren't near the level of Auburn, and yes he's had all day to find receivers. But he just looks so much better and in control of everything.
The second biggest is how quickly the defense appears to have come together after losing All-American caliber DTs Kyle Williams and Claude Wroten, a good and experienced two-way DE Melvin Oliver, and two experienced starting linebackers. A second year under Bo Pelini helps a lot. All they've done this year is outscore opponents 12-6 on their own in two 45-3 wins. No TDs allowed in the last 14 quarters. I'd love to see it reach 18.
Third biggest is Dwayne Bowe, who had Lasik surgery before the Peach Bowl and has looked great since. He has the chance to be a total beast this year.
Big questions for LSU are the running backs and offensive line. The backs are either dinged up or freshmen except for Jacob Hester, who isn't exactly the prototype SEC feature back. He is a good receiver out of the backfield, and has his moments as a runner. If Auburn stuffs the run and pressures Russell, it's going to be a long game for LSU. If they can't stop Kenny Irons with a rebuilt front seven, it'll be even longer.
I have no idea how the game will go, but the last three games for LSU (Peach Bowl plus first two games this season) have been outstanding. Like 130-9 outstanding. I do feel pretty good about that.
USA 3, MEXICO 1.
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Surprise, surprise
It was with rather little expectation that I logged on to a chat on espn.com dealing with football recruiting. I'd submitted a question earlier in the day, but I didn't expect it to get read, since they rarely do. So I was rather excited when I saw that there was a post from Natchitoches, LA. But wait, I use Falls Church, VA when I post (I figure it's more likely to get answered that way). Somebody named Brian was posting from my hometown. Good for him, I thought.
So it was with even greater joy a couple a couple of questions later when I saw my question asked and answered. On the same day, in the same chat, ESPN answered my question and the question of someone from my hometown. What a great world we live in. Simple pleasures are the best, boys and girls.
So it was with even greater joy a couple a couple of questions later when I saw my question asked and answered. On the same day, in the same chat, ESPN answered my question and the question of someone from my hometown. What a great world we live in. Simple pleasures are the best, boys and girls.
LSU/Arizona
This Saturday, the Mighty Tigers will host the Arizona Wildcats. They last met in 2003, when LSU trounced them 59-13 in Tucson. Since then, Arizona has hired Mike Stoops, who has really upgraded the talent level on the team and made them a lot tougher. Browsing a message board or two, the posts seem to break down into four categories:
1) LSU fans who think Arizona stinks. They're a soft PAC-10 team that can't play defense. They've gone 3-7 the last two years. The atmosphere of Tiger Stadium and the humidity will be too much, and LSU will win in a rout.
2) LSU fans who respect Arizona and think they can give the Tigers a good game, but that LSU will still win.
3) Arizona fans who will root hard for their team, but haven't seen enough to think they can go to LSU and win. They hope they don't get blown out.
4) Arizona fans who think that the SEC is overrated, and that LSU will be overlooking them with Auburn coming up on the 16th. They play the "no respect" card. LSU thinks they're slow and aren't ready to play with the big boys. This overconfidence, combined with a great performance by Arizona, will be the Tigers' undoing.
So what do I think? Defense is Arizona's strength. Looking at how they match up with LSU's offense, I think they only spot on the field they have an advantage is when Louis Holmes lines up across from Peter Dyakowski. If Holmes can create havoc in the LSU backfield, Arizona can pick it up everywhere else. Other than that, LSU's interior line is better than Arizona's, their running backs are better than the Wildcat linebackers, and the LSU receivers are better than the Arizona secondary. Arizona hasn't seen anyone quite like JaMarcus Russell, either. I'm not saying he's so much better than the QBs Arizona has faced in the PAC-10, but he presents different challenges.
When Arizona has the ball, they're going to have it rough. Arizona could be starting a walk-on at center. Against a guy like Glenn Dorsey, that means trouble. Arizona's running game was weak against BYU, and LSU is a lot better than BYU. At running back, Arizona lost Mike Bell, who could be starting for the Broncos. Matching up with the speed of the LSU linebackers and the playmaking of Ali Highsmith will be tough. At wideout, Arizona does have a couple of talented players who can stretch the field. They're going to need to come up huge, because LSU's secondary is one of the best in the country, with three senior starters. It has corners who can cover, and safeties who can cover and hit. The leader of the offense is Willie Tuitama, who came on late last year and led them to a thrashing over UCLA, their biggest win of the year. However, he's faced with taking on the combo of defensive coordinator Bo Pelini and All-American safety LaRon Landry, who have a lot more experience and meanness to them than Tuitama does.
Some people who predict a Wildcat victory sometimes point to three things: 1) overconfidence by LSU combined with looking ahead to Auburn the next week; 2) Arizona was a big underdog to UCLA last year, and if they can beat those Bruins, they can beat these Tigers; and 3) the last two years LSU has faced a PAC-10 team, they've barely escaped with a win. They needed missed kicks and over time to beat Oregon State in 2004, and they needed to blocked kicks returned for TDs and a miracle pass and catch to beat Arizona State in 2005.
Point number one is a good one.
Point number two isn't. In terms of "plucky underdog can take down heavy favorite" it's valid. However, last year's Bruins won plenty of games in a shootout, and it was only a matter of time before their lack of defense caught up with them. No one thought it would happen against Arizona, but that's not LSU's dilemma. LSU's defense is much, much better than UCLA's last year or BYU's this year, which held Arizona to 16 points. Also, the game against UCLA was at home, while they play LSU on the road.
Point number three seems okay, but has its problems. Arizona State and Oregon State were both quarterbacked by experienced QBs in a West Coast style offense. More specifically, they had good, athletic tight ends who could catch the ball and make LSU pay for blitzing. I don't see that with Arizona. Period. Also, the other two teams had good offensive lines that could provide time for the QB or holes for the RB. Arizona's is average at best. They could get better with time or play way over their heads, though.
If you're looking for sort of cop-out reasons why the OSU and ASU results were so close when LSU was favored, here are three: 1) Heavy rain wet the field down and negated LSU's speed advantage over OSU. 2) A hurricane moved the game from Baton Rouge to Tempe for ASU. 3) The hurricane also moved LSU's opening game against North Texas back a few weeks, so LSU didn't have a warmup game to work out the kinks. ASU had Temple the previous week.
What do I expect? LSU by 10 or 13 (not covering the spread). Can Arizona win? Of course. Of course, for the SEC pick 'em on a message board, I always pick the favorite to win and cover.
1) LSU fans who think Arizona stinks. They're a soft PAC-10 team that can't play defense. They've gone 3-7 the last two years. The atmosphere of Tiger Stadium and the humidity will be too much, and LSU will win in a rout.
2) LSU fans who respect Arizona and think they can give the Tigers a good game, but that LSU will still win.
3) Arizona fans who will root hard for their team, but haven't seen enough to think they can go to LSU and win. They hope they don't get blown out.
4) Arizona fans who think that the SEC is overrated, and that LSU will be overlooking them with Auburn coming up on the 16th. They play the "no respect" card. LSU thinks they're slow and aren't ready to play with the big boys. This overconfidence, combined with a great performance by Arizona, will be the Tigers' undoing.
So what do I think? Defense is Arizona's strength. Looking at how they match up with LSU's offense, I think they only spot on the field they have an advantage is when Louis Holmes lines up across from Peter Dyakowski. If Holmes can create havoc in the LSU backfield, Arizona can pick it up everywhere else. Other than that, LSU's interior line is better than Arizona's, their running backs are better than the Wildcat linebackers, and the LSU receivers are better than the Arizona secondary. Arizona hasn't seen anyone quite like JaMarcus Russell, either. I'm not saying he's so much better than the QBs Arizona has faced in the PAC-10, but he presents different challenges.
When Arizona has the ball, they're going to have it rough. Arizona could be starting a walk-on at center. Against a guy like Glenn Dorsey, that means trouble. Arizona's running game was weak against BYU, and LSU is a lot better than BYU. At running back, Arizona lost Mike Bell, who could be starting for the Broncos. Matching up with the speed of the LSU linebackers and the playmaking of Ali Highsmith will be tough. At wideout, Arizona does have a couple of talented players who can stretch the field. They're going to need to come up huge, because LSU's secondary is one of the best in the country, with three senior starters. It has corners who can cover, and safeties who can cover and hit. The leader of the offense is Willie Tuitama, who came on late last year and led them to a thrashing over UCLA, their biggest win of the year. However, he's faced with taking on the combo of defensive coordinator Bo Pelini and All-American safety LaRon Landry, who have a lot more experience and meanness to them than Tuitama does.
Some people who predict a Wildcat victory sometimes point to three things: 1) overconfidence by LSU combined with looking ahead to Auburn the next week; 2) Arizona was a big underdog to UCLA last year, and if they can beat those Bruins, they can beat these Tigers; and 3) the last two years LSU has faced a PAC-10 team, they've barely escaped with a win. They needed missed kicks and over time to beat Oregon State in 2004, and they needed to blocked kicks returned for TDs and a miracle pass and catch to beat Arizona State in 2005.
Point number one is a good one.
Point number two isn't. In terms of "plucky underdog can take down heavy favorite" it's valid. However, last year's Bruins won plenty of games in a shootout, and it was only a matter of time before their lack of defense caught up with them. No one thought it would happen against Arizona, but that's not LSU's dilemma. LSU's defense is much, much better than UCLA's last year or BYU's this year, which held Arizona to 16 points. Also, the game against UCLA was at home, while they play LSU on the road.
Point number three seems okay, but has its problems. Arizona State and Oregon State were both quarterbacked by experienced QBs in a West Coast style offense. More specifically, they had good, athletic tight ends who could catch the ball and make LSU pay for blitzing. I don't see that with Arizona. Period. Also, the other two teams had good offensive lines that could provide time for the QB or holes for the RB. Arizona's is average at best. They could get better with time or play way over their heads, though.
If you're looking for sort of cop-out reasons why the OSU and ASU results were so close when LSU was favored, here are three: 1) Heavy rain wet the field down and negated LSU's speed advantage over OSU. 2) A hurricane moved the game from Baton Rouge to Tempe for ASU. 3) The hurricane also moved LSU's opening game against North Texas back a few weeks, so LSU didn't have a warmup game to work out the kinks. ASU had Temple the previous week.
What do I expect? LSU by 10 or 13 (not covering the spread). Can Arizona win? Of course. Of course, for the SEC pick 'em on a message board, I always pick the favorite to win and cover.
A Great Way to Start the Day
An email was waiting for me this morning that included this link:
"the O'Meara deal has fallen through, according to bankruptcy court files, and a new buyer has stepped forward. Britt Swan , owner of Georgetown nightspots Modern and the Rhino Bar, told us yesterday that he intends to preserve the Sign of the Whale name and its old-school shabby gentility."
I've been to Rhino several times, and it's a darn good place to watch football on Sundays. I don't think SOTW has to become more like it, but it's nice to know it's going to someone whose work I'm already a little familiar with. But most of all, I'm happy that my favorite place within a thousand miles won't be turned into a superfluous Irish pub.
"the O'Meara deal has fallen through, according to bankruptcy court files, and a new buyer has stepped forward. Britt Swan , owner of Georgetown nightspots Modern and the Rhino Bar, told us yesterday that he intends to preserve the Sign of the Whale name and its old-school shabby gentility."
I've been to Rhino several times, and it's a darn good place to watch football on Sundays. I don't think SOTW has to become more like it, but it's nice to know it's going to someone whose work I'm already a little familiar with. But most of all, I'm happy that my favorite place within a thousand miles won't be turned into a superfluous Irish pub.
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