Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Here's hoping for 18

This weekend brings us one of the great college football weekends of the last few years, and certainly the biggest of this season. SEVEN games match teams ranked in the top 24 in the country. Had Clemson not lost to BC in double overtime last week, the number would be eight. Lesson: Never trust Clemson.

On the slate:

11Michigan AT 2Notre Dame
19Nebraska AT 4USC
7Florida AT 13Tennessee
17Miami AT 12Louisville
15Oklahoma AT 18Oregon
24Texas Tech AT 20TCU
6 LSU AT 3Auburn
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Michigan hasn't been much of a factor nationally the last few years, so they're flying under the radar for a team on the verge of the top ten. They have a very good RB in Mike Hart, but I can't escape the idea that QB Chad Henne and the receivers are underachieving a little. Notre Dame has a great offense being run by Brady Quinn and Charlie Weis, and they can put at least four legitimate weapons at Quinn's disposal on the field at the same time. I thought Penn State had some good success running right at Notre Dame and abandoned it a little too early, and running up the gut is Michigan's strength. If Michigan can pound away and keep their defense off the field, they've got a great shot.
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As you might remember, I'm a fan of Nebraska. Tommie Frazier is my favorite college player of all time, Tom Osborne my favorite, coach, and I believe that 1995 Nebraska is the best college team ever. So I would love to see them win at USC, but I just don't think it's going to happen. Nebraska's front seven on defense are outstanding, but the secondary isn't ready for all the different guys who can catch passes for USC. The only hope is for the line to get so much pressure on John David Booty that he never has any time to find them, and USC's offensive line is too good for that to happen. On the other side, Pete Carroll does a good job of bringing pressure from different angles, and I don't think Nebraska's offensive line is good enough to stand up to it. Nebraska can hang with them for a while, but home field and clear edge in depth and talent will win out for USC. I'll be pulling for Nebraska.
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Florida and Tennessee match up in the biggest game in the SEC East, probably all year. The winner's game against UGA might come close if UGA is unbeaten. The Effing Gators have looked really good in two blowout wins, and the second year of Urban Meyer's system is going a lot better than the first. They're finding ways to work freshmen Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin into the game, with good results. Especially Harvin.
Quick interruption to talk about women's soccer. Wambach has scored twice in her hometown of Rochester, NY. Natasha Kai and her tattoos just entered the game.
Tennessee is a mystery to a lot of people. After a 5-6 season last year, we didn't know if they would underachieve again or regain top form and challenge for the SEC title. They beat the stuffing out of Cal in Week 1, but maybe Cal was ranked too high (I don't like the term "overrated"). Then they almost lost to Air Force. I hope they beat the hell out of Florida. And that Florida gets hit by a bus.
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Who in their right mind would ever think that Louisville would be ranked five spots higher than Miami when they played? Yowza. Louisville lost a marvelous running back when Michael Bush broke his leg in Week 1. Big, strong, fast, he would be a load to handle in any system, but especially with a guy like Bobby Petrino. They missed him a lot when they beat Temple 62-0 last week. So why to I think Miami will win? DefenseDefenseDefenseDefenseDefense. They'll dare Louisville to run it with Bush out, and his replacements will find Miami a lot meaner than Temple. The secondary is one of the best around and will make life tough on Brian Brohm and the receivers. And they're going to be pissed that UL is ranked higher than they are.
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Oklahoma beat Oregon in last year's Holiday Bowl, the first time in quite a while it wasn't an offensive shootout, but a tough 17-14 Sooner victory. Oklahoma will have the best player on the field, Adrian Peterson, but I'm not sure they have enough of everything else. The defense has been given fits by UAB and Washington, not exactly USC and Notre Dame. The offense has to go with QB-then-WR-then-QB-again Paul Thompson, who lost to TCU at home last year. Yikes. Oregon is balanced on offense, has a very good RB Jonathan Stewart (averaging more than 7 yards a pop so far), was good enough to beat Fresno State on the road, and have a very strong homefield advantage at Autzen Stadium. West Coast fans hail it as the toughest place in the country. SEC fans scoff at a place with fewer than 42,000 seats (that's a spring practice crowd at Florida), but the noise is supposed to be incredible.
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The bottom-feeder of the group, TT/ could end up being a pretty entertaining game. I looked through the TCU roster and didn't recognize a single name, which means absolutely nothing. As I mentioned above, they were good enough to win at Oklahoma last year, and some of that respect has carried over to this year. Nobody pays attention to the Texas Tech roster either, because they think all the numbers are simply products of Mike Leach's system. One roster fact of note: for the first time in a million years, Texas Tech isn't starting a senior at QB. So what Graham Harrell might do in two years could be ridiculous. I don't care who wins.
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And of course, the best matchup of the weekend, LSU traveling to the Plains to take on Auburn. LSU won last year 20-17 in overtime, helped greatly by five missed field goals by the Auburn kicker (he went down like a choking dog). Kenny Irons hit the LSU defense up for over 200 yards. Now he and Brandon Cox have another year under their belt, and Courtney Taylor is one of the best receivers in the SEC. Winning at Auburn ain't easy. So why do I feel so good? Good question. One LSU fan commented that this was the most confident he'd seen LSU before such a big game in quite a while, and I think he's right. What's the deal?

The biggest deal to me is how much better JaMarcus Russell looks at quarterback. Yes, ULL and Arizona aren't near the level of Auburn, and yes he's had all day to find receivers. But he just looks so much better and in control of everything.

The second biggest is how quickly the defense appears to have come together after losing All-American caliber DTs Kyle Williams and Claude Wroten, a good and experienced two-way DE Melvin Oliver, and two experienced starting linebackers. A second year under Bo Pelini helps a lot. All they've done this year is outscore opponents 12-6 on their own in two 45-3 wins. No TDs allowed in the last 14 quarters. I'd love to see it reach 18.

Third biggest is Dwayne Bowe, who had Lasik surgery before the Peach Bowl and has looked great since. He has the chance to be a total beast this year.

Big questions for LSU are the running backs and offensive line. The backs are either dinged up or freshmen except for Jacob Hester, who isn't exactly the prototype SEC feature back. He is a good receiver out of the backfield, and has his moments as a runner. If Auburn stuffs the run and pressures Russell, it's going to be a long game for LSU. If they can't stop Kenny Irons with a rebuilt front seven, it'll be even longer.

I have no idea how the game will go, but the last three games for LSU (Peach Bowl plus first two games this season) have been outstanding. Like 130-9 outstanding. I do feel pretty good about that.

USA 3, MEXICO 1.

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