LSU/Arizona

This Saturday, the Mighty Tigers will host the Arizona Wildcats. They last met in 2003, when LSU trounced them 59-13 in Tucson. Since then, Arizona has hired Mike Stoops, who has really upgraded the talent level on the team and made them a lot tougher. Browsing a message board or two, the posts seem to break down into four categories:

1) LSU fans who think Arizona stinks. They're a soft PAC-10 team that can't play defense. They've gone 3-7 the last two years. The atmosphere of Tiger Stadium and the humidity will be too much, and LSU will win in a rout.

2) LSU fans who respect Arizona and think they can give the Tigers a good game, but that LSU will still win.

3) Arizona fans who will root hard for their team, but haven't seen enough to think they can go to LSU and win. They hope they don't get blown out.

4) Arizona fans who think that the SEC is overrated, and that LSU will be overlooking them with Auburn coming up on the 16th. They play the "no respect" card. LSU thinks they're slow and aren't ready to play with the big boys. This overconfidence, combined with a great performance by Arizona, will be the Tigers' undoing.

So what do I think? Defense is Arizona's strength. Looking at how they match up with LSU's offense, I think they only spot on the field they have an advantage is when Louis Holmes lines up across from Peter Dyakowski. If Holmes can create havoc in the LSU backfield, Arizona can pick it up everywhere else. Other than that, LSU's interior line is better than Arizona's, their running backs are better than the Wildcat linebackers, and the LSU receivers are better than the Arizona secondary. Arizona hasn't seen anyone quite like JaMarcus Russell, either. I'm not saying he's so much better than the QBs Arizona has faced in the PAC-10, but he presents different challenges.

When Arizona has the ball, they're going to have it rough. Arizona could be starting a walk-on at center. Against a guy like Glenn Dorsey, that means trouble. Arizona's running game was weak against BYU, and LSU is a lot better than BYU. At running back, Arizona lost Mike Bell, who could be starting for the Broncos. Matching up with the speed of the LSU linebackers and the playmaking of Ali Highsmith will be tough. At wideout, Arizona does have a couple of talented players who can stretch the field. They're going to need to come up huge, because LSU's secondary is one of the best in the country, with three senior starters. It has corners who can cover, and safeties who can cover and hit. The leader of the offense is Willie Tuitama, who came on late last year and led them to a thrashing over UCLA, their biggest win of the year. However, he's faced with taking on the combo of defensive coordinator Bo Pelini and All-American safety LaRon Landry, who have a lot more experience and meanness to them than Tuitama does.

Some people who predict a Wildcat victory sometimes point to three things: 1) overconfidence by LSU combined with looking ahead to Auburn the next week; 2) Arizona was a big underdog to UCLA last year, and if they can beat those Bruins, they can beat these Tigers; and 3) the last two years LSU has faced a PAC-10 team, they've barely escaped with a win. They needed missed kicks and over time to beat Oregon State in 2004, and they needed to blocked kicks returned for TDs and a miracle pass and catch to beat Arizona State in 2005.

Point number one is a good one.

Point number two isn't. In terms of "plucky underdog can take down heavy favorite" it's valid. However, last year's Bruins won plenty of games in a shootout, and it was only a matter of time before their lack of defense caught up with them. No one thought it would happen against Arizona, but that's not LSU's dilemma. LSU's defense is much, much better than UCLA's last year or BYU's this year, which held Arizona to 16 points. Also, the game against UCLA was at home, while they play LSU on the road.

Point number three seems okay, but has its problems. Arizona State and Oregon State were both quarterbacked by experienced QBs in a West Coast style offense. More specifically, they had good, athletic tight ends who could catch the ball and make LSU pay for blitzing. I don't see that with Arizona. Period. Also, the other two teams had good offensive lines that could provide time for the QB or holes for the RB. Arizona's is average at best. They could get better with time or play way over their heads, though.

If you're looking for sort of cop-out reasons why the OSU and ASU results were so close when LSU was favored, here are three: 1) Heavy rain wet the field down and negated LSU's speed advantage over OSU. 2) A hurricane moved the game from Baton Rouge to Tempe for ASU. 3) The hurricane also moved LSU's opening game against North Texas back a few weeks, so LSU didn't have a warmup game to work out the kinks. ASU had Temple the previous week.

What do I expect? LSU by 10 or 13 (not covering the spread). Can Arizona win? Of course. Of course, for the SEC pick 'em on a message board, I always pick the favorite to win and cover.